Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.5 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.5 miles North of Ojai
34.4696°N, 119.2454°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 16:25:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
25h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2a9c6a61fdf4275934c9ac9952eb06529b0b62181f124f597e4063fa8a507429
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--119.25-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 14:33:33 PST
Source Batch
20260810_050122_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 10:57:03.705261+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.