Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.9 miles North-West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles North-West of Ojai
34.4726°N, 119.2568°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 15:34:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
112.9 km
12.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
32.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 5.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
41c4e390bc046e261fc002ae520b02ced3d8e3a9c2f5a9b21428ed8f8f0fa393
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--119.26-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 09:27:33.418496+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.