Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.2 miles East of Refugio
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles East of Refugio
34.4714°N, 119.9973°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 08:31:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
45.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
49.9 h
13.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 5.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
eae16f6c39ecfb32f1cd2b141403ad2731b77ea954ee378bedc3885625d09d8c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--120.00-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 03:42:32 PST
Source Batch
20260809_180953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.