Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.8 miles East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles East of Lucerne Valley
34.4771°N, 116.9037°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 18:15:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
7921d286e82050c9e14469732f352be219c3010a837b7dfbd4e1466087e6428f
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.48--116.90-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 11:19:06 PST
Source Batch
20260815_014753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 11:19:07.622134+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.