Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.4 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles North-East of Ojai
34.4775°N, 119.1958°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 23:33:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
118.4 km
18.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5c3299f012999b70d0916d8e26264bcba1b7e5f405a0b35929b23e800138d264
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.48--119.20-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 11:25:16 PST
Source Batch
20260808_015312_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.