Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
2.2 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles North-East of Ojai
34.4755°N, 119.2245°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 05:42:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
62.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
48.7 h
12.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
6b029211526f10c360d78af33790322e481836b3958a63db471e186f76c8a6ac
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.48--119.22-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 11:19:06 PST
Source Batch
20260815_014753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 11:19:07.622134+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.