Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.5 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.5 miles North of Ojai
34.4833°N, 119.2510°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 04:02:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
15cc1215ed832fc49a43bd3d575c5ebca51f9d9415e530485d34fcaa42bc9be8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.48--119.25-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 03:10:58 PST
Source Batch
20260812_173757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 03:11:14.505121+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.