Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
5.0 miles East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles East of Lucerne Valley
34.4909°N, 116.8792°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 08:29:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f908904a3f8cb7f080902833f140eef0703b02189574bbb0f49b055e7d5ebfa0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.49--116.88-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 02:19:37 PST
Source Batch
20260811_164843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 22:47:24.252004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.