Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.0 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles North of Ojai
34.4902°N, 119.2551°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 09:33:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e1addf5223ebc03e1119ee5a2b28a2d862a934a1af64d15ae82fc1e16ee2abd9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.49--119.26-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 12:10:52 PST
Source Batch
20260811_023849_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 12:10:52.900230+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.