Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
111.9 miles South-West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
111.9 miles South-West of San Simeon
34.4896°N, 122.5784°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 02:00:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
249.1 km
149.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 9.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e5c9e508cdd952c4aa90d21896050be28c2888a6910abf539250682b026e6c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.49--122.58-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_121529_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 21:47:54.605295+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.