Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
18.7 miles South-East of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles South-East of Essex
34.4974°N, 115.0957°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 19:58:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
153.5 km
53.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
350739354432af56f6eda78d0cc81b758c23284bcd29eec557a279e9a8746145
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.50--115.10-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 03:42:32 PST
Source Batch
20260809_180953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.