Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
7.2 miles East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles East of Lucerne Valley
34.4956°N, 116.8414°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 19:18:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7be825a6edfa5afdb2a4ead0b33cdc851fb558c5f9c4b2752dbd5147c0db4265
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.50--116.84-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 07:19:50 PST
Source Batch
20260809_214707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 07:19:51.138637+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.