Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
4.7 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North-East of Ojai
34.5104°N, 119.2080°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 01:33:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
51h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
53.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
43.4 h
7.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc64cf5444232b1f6b57a9f386a13eaa43890bce48e157db748cdbaf9b83961b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.51--119.21-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 22:28:35 PST
Source Batch
20260808_125544_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 22:28:36.604371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.