Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
5.9 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.9 miles North-East of Ojai
34.5226°N, 119.1933°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 02:18:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
188719b8d4da40d75d1fde20df1485febacc04f91b93d098642866793d35935b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.52--119.19-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 10:16:22 PST
Source Batch
20260813_004352_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 10:16:23.842110+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.