Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.3 miles North-West of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North-West of Pine Mountain Club
34.9060°N, 119.2396°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 21:56:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b22bf2e144732692aabf652e781dba3d039ebcca907d53942c54c5f18feefcc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.91--119.24-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 22:47:23 PST
Source Batch
20260811_131531_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 19:13:48.474080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.