Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.7 miles North-West of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.7 miles North-West of Pine Mountain Club
34.9060°N, 119.2479°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 02:46:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5ccbafd4830eec95a0a8e55e38945300619a96fbb99bb4835a85d1ec6d9fc7f8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.91--119.25-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 05:51:50 PST
Source Batch
20260811_202125_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 05:51:51.941012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.