Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
13.8 miles West of Fort Irwin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.8 miles West of Fort Irwin
35.2829°N, 116.9260°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 12:47:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
137.6 km
37.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
3.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 0.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d6f644ef873fad7206884a48dc446c0a91bfc179c355d9961ff755920d94e216
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.28--116.93-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 06:11:15 PST
Source Batch
20260730_204958_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 06:11:17.176388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.