Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
8.6 miles North-East of Keene
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles North-East of Keene
35.3433°N, 118.4920°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 01:52:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
100h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 12.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c6abcb0e82cac6fbec8aae9260ac8a7758140cf0e9ff5636a28696fccbea1d2b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.34--118.49-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.