Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
24.3 miles North-East of Nipton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.3 miles North-East of Nipton
35.7380°N, 114.9802°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 05:15:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 6.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5964c8099d0018decee29a7098830a7ad306af8a2ccd3ad131c59fd0eb780866
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.74--114.98-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 18:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260806_090614_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.