Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.4 miles North-West of Kernville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles North-West of Kernville
35.7926°N, 118.4637°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 08:10:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cecae3a34a7783ee76e31728a84bc5390278c84b9c995d99812e35e69d399a2e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.79--118.46-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 07:35:08 PST
Source Batch
20260805_220209_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 07:35:09.256498+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.