Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
6.9 miles South-West of Pearsonville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles South-West of Pearsonville
35.9011°N, 118.0851°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 11:46:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e69227aa9c69a5c638247867ab4ef9d92bbe71e95d9007941e7c507486c04386
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.90--118.09-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_124634_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 22:19:27.496612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.