Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.1 miles East of Pahrump Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.1 miles East of Pahrump Junction
35.9219°N, 115.7665°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 22:31:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
37h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
294.9 km
194.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
26.2 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d27c1928eb41c3515612dd0a888d6b822d6370cec939e68ee21250a1ac6f7a30
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.92--115.77-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 09:24:27 PST
Source Batch
20260812_010938_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 09:24:28.760918+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.