Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.0 miles South-West of Little Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.0 miles South-West of Little Lake
35.9224°N, 117.9398°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 17:12:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
103h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.1 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 3.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
00d18b3d4826df3bce8ef01130da0a788578399f2061fb86fbbbd9d449badafc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.92--117.94-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_013935_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.