Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
27.0 miles North of Primm
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.0 miles North of Primm
35.9999°N, 115.3404°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 19:02:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 6.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1d01d159607bb84a516601fe9f05e787d1ceda98e503328cbaeb3c7a076e55d2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.00--115.34-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_144116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 00:12:46.609111+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.