Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
7.0 miles North-West of Pearsonville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles North-West of Pearsonville
36.0193°N, 118.0922°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 07:12:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
22.0 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 6.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
655322e86f0bb15942a4a48c495e6229a6659fe0d58787a29df827aa732a9df6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.02--118.09-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_061112_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.