Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
15.4 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
36.0277°N, 116.8847°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 19:49:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
136.9 km
36.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 6.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7eab67cba0cafd00efcd317b8e2441c0cd6ea2138168cb6b4b6ffa1151f7b03b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.03--116.88-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 14:58:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_052549_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.