Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.1 miles East of Pahrump Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.1 miles East of Pahrump Junction
36.0493°N, 115.7731°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 01:59:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
167h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
79.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
64.2 h
28.2 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
25.1 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e0a3e2e341e37bfa6d0b3804e6383307de190c4ac0a5141db72a0779d1dd11a1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.05--115.77-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 02:18:38 PST
Source Batch
20260804_180437_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.