Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.1 miles South-East of Dunmovin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles South-East of Dunmovin
36.1082°N, 117.8824°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 05:21:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e40ff955a2e2ac545d33374b7f2764e8785addd988451fd01ad7a54b76e68c43
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.11--117.88-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_202541_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.