Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
3.3 miles South-East of Dunmovin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-East of Dunmovin
36.1185°N, 117.8885°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 14:17:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
25h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
555331e98397ca8d5537732fe982382d1d5e4fb24bc43cdf2ac1819d741702a6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.12--117.89-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260730_033332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.