Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
14.5 miles South-West of Olancha
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles South-West of Olancha
36.1374°N, 118.1947°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 05:19:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 1.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
06d4047423dd11348b5369912be16167552f3ca6a931585658f8ceb10258848a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.14--118.19-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 19:13:47 PST
Source Batch
20260811_094313_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 19:13:48.474080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.