Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.5 miles South-West of Olancha
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.5 miles South-West of Olancha
36.1386°N, 118.2424°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 15:19:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 1.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
705c104a4dfd6045fac3bd3e7be2c27c15e9408a00d05f0b9af2f4bb7f3b475c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.14--118.24-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 02:19:37 PST
Source Batch
20260811_164843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 22:47:24.252004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.