Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.4 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
36.1495°N, 116.9034°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 18:14:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5ef49a6e1b228e2728268970b225605065d4d6ce98a49c702528673b28545901
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.15--116.90-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 05:56:27 PST
Source Batch
20260804_202429_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.