Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
1.1 miles North-West of Dunmovin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles North-West of Dunmovin
36.1584°N, 117.9503°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 00:21:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
22.2 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 3.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d8e91dd63b421b32a3e2d9a64226bf5499a8073a3d4e7471580455da0cdec369
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.16--117.95-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 00:00:12 PST
Source Batch
20260802_142607_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.