Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.2 miles South of Stony Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles South of Stony Creek
36.5549°N, 118.8334°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 15:55:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
95h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
110.8 km
10.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5caac0f7cd8983fb34354e959cf9b512ea540fb8e349c3eb791cdc1bc25fa87b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.55--118.83-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 16:14:01 PST
Source Batch
20260731_080100_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.