Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
10.2 miles North of Furnace Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles North of Furnace Creek
36.6032°N, 116.8308°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 03:45:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.98
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
6.4 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc026ec1b76e65a74a85c4a92acbc52306b81f17e1a1985d75ed5ff0eb865f70
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.60--116.83-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 16:14:01 PST
Source Batch
20260731_080100_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 12:53:10.445097+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.