Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.2 miles South of Beatty
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles South of Beatty
36.8461°N, 116.7597°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 05:12:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
75f26422dea765c16d4f25b7bd44b971bc9310f646726b8ebb3243b92785b4d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.85--116.76-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 02:45:17 PST
Source Batch
20260730_172339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.