Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
23.5 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.5 miles South of Tracy
37.4105°N, 121.3178°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 14:23:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
89h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ee75444f27e4ce46f79b799d6d2accd081532b3244c6e808403cbe47f347156a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.41--121.32-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.