Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.3 miles North-West of Queen Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles North-West of Queen Valley
37.4827°N, 118.4484°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 22:30:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
18.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 9.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
53ca0751b602ddcbef2f19cd73b5bb9fb2501a9935b1464531c7ecbfe95b8a77
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.48--118.45-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_200611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 05:39:27.868892+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.