Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
3.7 miles South-West of Crowley Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles South-West of Crowley Lake
37.5344°N, 118.7786°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 01:58:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
105h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
240.9 km
140.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b2e8eb3e55e02ba429f417b9738435306865ebe6b859706f3facf1906855117
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.53--118.78-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 16:52:23 PST
Source Batch
20260805_083842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 16:52:23.953537+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.