Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.2 miles South of Livermore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.2 miles South of Livermore
37.5504°N, 121.7982°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 01:27:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
23.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 9.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9c275bb22b442e095c9f6b334f72c9e7fb9960c437286efd033370413d61da70
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.55--121.80-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_061112_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.