Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.6 miles South-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles South-West of Convict Lake
37.5689°N, 118.8659°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 00:05:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
84h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
233.5 km
133.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
25.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
67dd5ea7e27691f6c331bc05bd284e6408730e86110266778baeb1f0130c51cf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.57--118.87-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 11:52:51 PST
Source Batch
20260804_033937_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.