Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.0 miles East of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.0 miles East of Convict Lake
37.5848°N, 118.8330°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 15:55:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
89h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e8af165fc64c8f5efdbbd988db7da0f37b2f2b2e26423de641a86b69e7a7b7e9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.58--118.83-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 22:53:35 PST
Source Batch
20260731_144055_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.