Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.3 miles South-East of Pleasanton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles South-East of Pleasanton
37.5892°N, 121.8064°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 00:52:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0f8832078aa83c52b7d23747273b2852f675c66cdb2d042c6c21b508659dccd2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.59--121.81-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 19:03:26 PST
Source Batch
20260804_093153_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.