Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.8 miles North-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.8 miles North-West of Convict Lake
37.6050°N, 118.8954°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 16:37:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
353h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2cc2a35b9cc2ba5ef6d1832820213fc0c3487186bb8635af5c4e024b290c5355
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.60--118.90-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 23:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260730_150332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 23:18:00.557176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.