Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.6 miles North-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles North-West of Convict Lake
37.6063°N, 118.8682°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 16:37:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
343h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
27bf3c1fcd12535afcf525b6186c0f18b2ac46de7a3470b9ac8bfcf59c2fd454
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.61--118.87-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_012013_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.