Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.1 miles South-East of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles South-East of Mammoth Lakes
37.6241°N, 118.9483°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 01:46:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4e02416547cf9426e7acbfb2f3793d7987af80249d1c23f7accf6d85575edab7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.62--118.95-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_133753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.