Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.4 miles North-East of Pleasanton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles North-East of Pleasanton
37.7214°N, 121.8421°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 07:28:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
21.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 12.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
25e19bfab454abafafd81943f316976a76f4b46c8aeafdfe361dee4d8cf713dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.72--121.84-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 07:42:46 PST
Source Batch
20260807_221041_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 07:42:46.984128+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.