Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.2 miles North-East of Livermore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles North-East of Livermore
37.7462°N, 121.6655°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 11:02:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
34.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 12.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
78948d0236ca2a3797c95557ed5b07186e1870f9eb78934c4f13b8753f255597
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.75--121.67-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 09:24:07 PST
Source Batch
20260806_235136_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 09:24:08.811392+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.