Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.9 miles South-East of Stockton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles South-East of Stockton
37.8678°N, 121.1998°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 02:49:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5d576c66755eef7a5c027378bd8e98c527d6fe86267eca3d65644b6a69a83b8d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.87--121.20-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 16:26:49 PST
Source Batch
20260730_070424_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 16:26:50.666398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.