Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.7 miles North-East of Benton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North-East of Benton
37.8757°N, 118.4271°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 15:11:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
48.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
61.0 h
25.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
654e92ee061bc03971c4af5eaf5c73ede4dcdc58c8f08351c6760b6b427c8bbf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.88--118.43-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 22:28:35 PST
Source Batch
20260808_125544_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 22:28:36.604371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.